Board Thread:Game Discussion/@comment-36299871-20180803101904

Trends in RR3 are always interesting. VFatalis made the comment:
 * "Every car featured in a SE has 50% chance ending in a ES nowadays..."

Since 90% of all statistics are made up (including this one), I thought I'd do some research and create some non-made up statistics. Exclusive series were added two years ago in 4.5.1 and new cars have been added in every update since except 5.1.0 (NASCAR 2017 update)

Only 5 Exclusive Series cars can't be won and they were all given an exclusive series in an early update:
 * NISSAN SKYLINE GT-R V-SPEC (R34) (4.5.1)
 * BMW M3 GTS (4.5.1)
 * ARIEL ATOM V8 (4.5.1)
 * AUDI R8 LMS ULTRA (4.7.0)
 * PORSCHE 918 RSR CONCEPT (5.0.0)
 * ASTON MARTIN V12 VANTAGE S (5.0.5)

These are all cheap cars with only the Arial and Porsche costing 150 each, the others are all R$.

The following cars were all available to win in LTS events with the update their exclusive update was added:
 * MAZDA RX-7 SPIRIT R (FD) (5.4.0)
 * BUGATTI VEYRON 16.4 (5.6.0)
 * FERRARI LAFERRARI (6.0.0)
 * FORD GT (2017) (6.0.7)
 * NISSAN SILVIA (S15) R3 SPEC (6.1.0)

The remaining 21 cars were all available in Special Events. This means that 65% of exclusive series cars were winnable in special events. However, this isn't the statistic we are looking for.

The are 68 cars that can be won in special events and overall there is a 31% chance that a special event car will be in an exclusive series in the future. However, this doesn't paint the entire picture as exclusive series were only introduced in update 4.5.0.

Since update 4.5.0 there have been 28 cars winnable in special events and only 13 of those have not been given an exclusive series yet. That means that since Exclusive Series were introduced there is a 54% chance that a Special Event car will have an Exclusive Series in the future. Not bad, VFatalis, you were in the right ball park. However, FM change things all the time and it's worth looking at one last statistic.

Since 5.4.0 there have been 13 cars added through special events and only three of them haven't yet been given exclusive series these are:
 * PORSCHE 917K (6.3.1)
 * MERCEDES-BENZ C11 (6.4.0)
 * MERCEDES-BENZ CLK-LM (6.4.0)

So there has been an 89% chance that a special event car will have an exclusive series in the last year and given that the three that don't (yet?) were added in the last two updates it is looking more like 100% at the moment.

The 10 other cars added through special event since 4.5.1 that don't yet have an exclusive series are :
 * MAZDA 787B (5.3.0)
 * PORSCHE 911 RSR (2017) (5.3.0)
 * NISSAN SKYLINE 2000 GT-R (KPGC10) (5.2.0)
 * NISSAN SKYLINE GT-R GROUP A (BNR32) (5.2.0)
 * LAMBORGHINI CENTENARIO LP 770-4 (5.1.0)
 * FORD FUSION (STEWART-HAAS RACING) (5.1.0)
 * FORMULA E SRT 01E (SEASON 3) (RENAULT Z.E.16) (5.0.0)
 * FORD FALCON FG X (2016) (4.6.2)
 * JAGUAR XJ220 (4.5.1)
 * JAGUAR LIGHTWEIGHT E-TYPE (4.5.1)

I would suggest that these cars will never have an exclusive series but that is just a guess.

So in summary, since update 5.0.5, all exclusive series cars have been winnable through an SE or LTS and if current trends continue, most SE cars are likely to be added to soon. If you are interested in exclusive series then I would suggest winning all cars in special events and not worrying about the cost you spend on them. This might explain why FM have changed the rules for winning special event cars and made them harder. Ultimately, it doesn't matter to those interested in reaching 100% in exclusive.

** I make no excuses for any of the above information being incorrect or inaccurate. 